It’s going to hurt, but Joe Biden stepping aside is the only logical option. It is the least bad choice for him and his party. He should also do it very soon (9th July is the time of writing). It is almost certain that he won’t be the nominee come November, and the longer he (and his advisors and confidents) take to realise and act on this, the more compressed and compromised the replacement process will be. The more the voters will lose trust in the disingenuous messages currently coming out of the party.

So why is it almost certain the Biden won’t be the nominee? To everyone who watched the debate a few days ago, and the panicy damage limitation exercise since, it is clear that Joe Biden’s cognitive functions are seriously impaired. One more significant episode (and there will be one, given the deterioration, and glaring press scrutiny) will make continuing completely untenable. The party excuses of jet lag, over preparation, a bad night, etc. will be totally exposed for what they are. Joe’s lack of fitness for office beyond 2024 will be beyond question.

There is clearly a risk that a replacement candidate will not beat Donald Trump (and this essay is not arguing one way or another on his fitness), but it is clear a replacement will be required. Prevaricating and delaying is only making things worse. It also seems clear that even should Joe make it all the way to November, there is a very serious chance he will lose to Trump himself. As a side note, ultimately it is in the best interests of democracy itself that both parties put up the strongest candidates.

The final consideration is that even should Joe make it to November and win the election, his cognitive failure will become undeniable 6 months or one year into his second term, and America will either have to default to the vice president or limp along for years with a figure head rather than a functioning chief executive. The voters will surely punish the party at the following mid terms and general election for such negligence. This short sightedness does them no favours in the medium term.

What should happen? The party and Joe’s people need to quickly come up with face saving messages that enable him to graciously back out of the contest and come up with a structured and effective plan that they can all buy into to find a replacement they can unify behind as soon as possible.

What will probably happen? Joe will hang on as long as possible, but ultimately back down in humiliating fashion, leaving the party to scramble to find a replacement and explain the fiasco to a dubious electorate. An electorate that will then fail to show up in droves in November, gifting a win to the Republican Party, potentially of both houses as well as the presidency.