Were Hamas’ actions justified? Clearly no – there is no circumstance where kidnapping and murdering women, children, babies and men too can be justified. 

Is Israeli fury justified? Absolutely – the pain of this kind of loss is unimaginable, and the desire for retribution for such unspeakable acts must be overwhelming.

Is the determination of a nation’s security policy based on anger and revenge the right approach? No it is not. This is a time to step back and understand the full problem and the reasons behind it. Lashing out may be cathartic, but it will just perpetuate the cycle of violence. Surely this is a lesson that must be learnt from the aftermath of 9/11 and the disastrous ‘war on terror’. Instead, this is a time for cool headed leadership that can address both the immediate national pain, and set a course that will turn the tide towards peace and justice.

So what is the underlying problem? At its most basic, Mutual Generational Hatred. Of course there are many underlying religious and historical grievances, but they just feed the divisions. A clear indication of the level of animosity is the jeering crowd heckling injured, objectified and terrified kidnap victims. As well as perceived revenge against a much stronger enemy, it epitomises the hatred that burns in Palestinian hearts. This also explains the continued presence by ballot of Hamas whose pledge to free the Palestinian people of the apparent oppression by Israel overrides, in the minds of voters, the self evident ineptitude and corruption of their leaders, and ultimately undermines any efforts towards improving the well being of that community.

However, this is an opening that can be used to turn the tide of violence, and because they have almost all power, the only party that can take advantage of that opening is Israel. This will require hard choices, and it will require facing down hardline elements that will use rousing and emotive rhetoric to rile people into demanding vengeance. However blood begets blood, and it is time for the Israeli government to step up and take meaningful action towards peace that history can look back as a turning point. In some sense it is time to turn the other cheek.

So what should Israel do next? 

1. Recognise this is not a war, and avoid any language that suggests it is. Calling it a war dignifies sadistic criminals with the title of solider. These are not war crimes, but they are rape, torture, kidnapping and murder, and should be treated as such. In addition treating this like a war gives validation to those who would choose to side with the terrorists and stand against the violated. Finally it makes it much more difficult to separate the perpetrators from the rest of the population and enable them to recognise the moral high ground occupied by those that don’t use human shields, kill without discrimination and revel in violence.
2. Provide immediate security. That includes sealing the breaches in the boarder with Gaza and ensure that the Iron Dome missile defence grid is resupplied and as effective as possible. There will be more attacks before this cycle is over.
3. Stop the bombing and shelling of Gaza and refrain from a ground invasion. Even if the task of eliminating every member of Hamas was achieved there is no possibility to extirpate the sense of hopelessness of hundreds of thousands of young men. Killing their friends and family members will only fuel the fire. Even appearing to act out of spite or revenge will justify reciprocation in the minds of your enemies. Bombing and shelling until they realise you aren’t really that bad is not a thing.
4. Begin the task of separating the people of Gaza from the Hamas leadership. This will require communication, and action plans with timelines and demonstrable results. If there is to be no two state solution – which realistically seems an impossible lift, then the people of Gaza, and potentially the West Bank, need to see the Israeli government as their government, not as an occupier. The fact that is not how Israel sees itself also needs to change – and they need to persuade the Palestinians to see see them that way. The difficult circle to square in all of this would be the maintenance of a Jewish state with a large muslim population. (The inherent incompatibility of a religious nationalist government with a modern, inclusive society is for another blog post). 
5. Make the security and well being of the Palestinians one with the security and well being of the rest of Israel. Showing mercy to the merciless takes a huge amount of strength and courage. However mercy can be used to elicit concessions from neighbouring Arab countries. This will be particularly important in securing the release of the hostages taken at the start of the current violence, and bringing the Hamas terrorists and leadership to justice (clear and unequivocal justice – probably by a third party, maybe the dutch in Den Haag)
6. Make Gaza a tolerable place to live. Invest in infrastructure and services. Enable business and opportunity and allow an, at least, partially self sustaining economy to develop. Provide opportunities for young Palestinians to find meaningful employment and the ability to support their families. Ultimately show the people of Gaza how much better off they would be with a competent government who had their best interests at heart. The disaster of trying to crush Germany after the First World War in comparison to the rebuilding and rehabilitation after the Second World War offer clear lessons for a way forward. This process will of course take decades. Northern Ireland is probably a window on how entrenched relatively minor differences can be, and the violence that they can generate – but it also shows there are solutions to the most intractable problems if there is a willingness to put in the work and suffer the set backs but stay the course.
7. Communicate the change of approach. Make sure it is clear that perpetrators will be brought to justice, but that there is a commitment to fundamental change. It must be clear that this is a statement of strength of the Israel nation and confidence in their just cause, not a weakness that can be exploited. America and Saudi Arabia should join Israel and echo that message. It should also be followed by clear next steps and a timetable for delivering the initial steps. Part of this will entail recognising that the latest attack did not happen in a vacuum – that is not in anyway to justify the outrages committed. However to deny that honestly is just naive, but is more likely to be done in bad faith. It also prevents a thoughtful approach to solution options.

What will most likely happen? 

Israel will try to take the opportunity to try to crush the Palestinian will while they have the world’s sympathy. This will continue until the world can no longer stomach the death and suffering broadcast on global televisions, and pressure the Israelis to stop. Another generation of Israelis and Palestinians will then be fully drenched in mutual hatred. It will then be more decades of the same – but probably worse.

Additional Notes:

26 Nov ’23

• The comparison of Germany after the two world wars does have its issues. The war with Germany was not an ideological one, and the Germans and (western) allies did not fundamentally hate each other. Before the first world war began many officers from the UK and Germany did exchange tours with each other for instance. Once the war was one there was no deep seated animosity to overcome. The story is somewhat different between (West) Germany and Russia, but even their after the Cold War was won, almost immediately there was co-operation if only grudgingly.
• A two state solution is really the only viable option for a permanent solution. However there are hardliners on both sides that want everything – from the river to the sea, and would rather have permanent conflict than give up that goal.
• Neither side can denounce or address the religious extremism on the other side, because they both have the same powerful factions themselves. Separating this hard line religious element from government would require drastic action that would draw an incredibly vocal and violent backlash, if only from a minority of people. These last two points explain the Israeli policy of trying to suppress Hamas despite its self defeating nature – what other option do they have unless they decide to stand up to those in their own ranks that refuse to compromise? It also suggests a very depressing future for the region.

MT